The splendid Powerscourt Hotel & Spa was once again the venue for the annual CAPA Airlines in Transition 2016 Conference. More than 180 delegates attended and were given an information overload of aviation industry trends.
In a most interesting address, the CAPA Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison, said that demand will be the key issue in 2016. He pointed out that for 2015 the pivot was cost, as fuel priced slumped by an amazing 50%. As a consequence, prices have remained low, still defying anyone to predict where they will go in 2016.
The consensus suggests a gradual increase in prices, although this has been the belief for some time – and still prices slide. So, many airlines should continue to be profitable in 2016, although 2015 has likely been the peak, perhaps of all time. Whatever happens on the cost side of the ledger, one thing is clear: in 2016 the driver will be demand – or the lack of it.
At the CAPA Airline Boardroom live :How can full service carriers regain their short haul markets from the low cost carriers,Stephen Kavanagh-CEO-Aer Lingus said that globally relevant frequent flyer programmes are essential for full service carriers.